AI may know how you’ll respond to a vaccine before you get it

 Vaccines prevent serious illness for many people, but the immune protection they produce can differ substantially from one person to another. New research led by Arizona State University offers clues about what may be behind those differences.

The immune system may show signs of how strongly it will react even before vaccination. Researchers at ASU and collaborating institutions examined blood samples from more than 4,000 people, measuring antibodies that recognized 185 antigens. Those immune targets included common viruses and bacteria, along with targets connected to autoimmune diseases.

Artificial intelligence was then used to search for patterns in blood samples taken before and after COVID-19 vaccination. The analysis uncovered antibody signatures that could help separate people who produced strong vaccine responses from those whose responses were weaker.

The findings could eventually contribute to vaccination strategies tailored more closely to an individual's immune system.

"What our study found is that certain biomarkers, when analyzed with AI, can predict who is likely to respond well to a vaccine, even before they receive it. This suggests that some people may be more immune-ready than others," says Joshua LaBaer, who led the study.

LaBaer is executive director of the Biodesign Institute at ASU and director of the Virginia G. Piper Center for Personalized Diagnostics. The project also involved ASU researchers and collaborators from medical and research institutions around the United States.

The study appears in the current issue of the journal Cell Press Blue.

Blood Antibodies May Reveal Vaccine Readiness

Scientists typically evaluate vaccine response after vaccination by measuring whether the immune system generated antibodies against the intended target. In this study, the researchers approached the problem from the opposite direction. They wanted to know whether immune patterns already present in the blood could reveal how someone would respond before receiving a vaccine.

Many factors can influence vaccine response, including age, sex, genetics, previous illnesses and underlying health conditions. People with conditions that compromise the immune system are often more likely to produce weaker responses. However, vaccine outcomes can still vary widely among people who fall into the same general health categories.

The researchers used one of the first approaches to examine a broad antibody "fingerprint" present before vaccination as a measure of immune readiness. While some other prediction strategies depend on genetic testing, this method analyzes antibody patterns in blood, potentially making it easier to translate into clinical practice.

Source: ScienceDaily

This yeast supplement may boost cancer-fighting immunity

 Researchers at Trinity College Dublin and University College Dublin (UCD) have found that a yeast-based dietary supplement can strengthen immune cells involved in fighting cancer in mice.

In experiments with obese laboratory mice, the researchers found that adding the supplement to the animals' diets changed the way immune cells developed and produced stronger cancer-fighting responses.

Obesity can interfere with immune function, making it more difficult for the body to respond effectively to tumors. The new findings suggest that a yeast-based supplement could potentially help restore some of that lost immune activity.

The research was published in the scientific journal Cell Reports. The study was led by Frederick Sheedy, Associate Professor in Immunology in Trinity's School of Biochemistry and Immunology, and Helen Roche, Professor in Nutrigenomics, UCD School of Public Health, Physiotherapy and Sports Science and Director of the UCD Conway Institute.

Training Immune Cells Through Diet

Dr. Anna Ledwith, postdoctoral researcher in Prof. Roche's group and first author of the research paper, said: "We wanted to investigate whether a common dietary supplement, yeast beta-glucan, could reprogram early-stage immune cells in the bone marrow to produce long-lasting, enhanced anti-tumor immune responses.

"Mice were fed a standard or high-fat diet supplemented with yeast beta-glucan for 4-12 weeks, and then their immune system was challenged by different types of cancer cells: colorectal, skin, and breast cancer. The study also tested whether yeast supplementation could overcome immune dysfunction caused by obesity and whether protective effects persist after weight loss."

The researchers wanted to determine whether consuming yeast beta-glucan could produce a form of lasting immune training by changing early immune cells in the bone marrow. They also examined whether the supplement could counter the immune problems caused by obesity.

Prof. Roche said the findings show for the first time that consuming yeast beta-glucan in the diet is enough to trigger trained immunity by altering bone marrow stem cells. Earlier studies achieved similar effects using injections.

Commenting on the significance of the findings, Prof. Roche added: "This is the first demonstration that dietary delivery of yeast beta-glucan is sufficient to induce trained immunity through reprogramming of bone marrow stem cells. Previous research required injections.

"Crucially, this dietary intervention restores anti-tumor innate immunity in obese mice and reverses long-term immune memory defects that persist even after weight loss, a major unmet clinical challenge."

Source: ScienceDaily

This common vitamin was linked to 13% better cognitive scores

 More than 7 million Americans are currently living with Alzheimer's dementia, and that number is expected to climb to nearly 13 million by 2050. New research from Emory University suggests that higher vitamin D supplement intake may be linked to stronger cognitive performance in adults who face an increased risk of developing dementia.

The study included 54 adults with sleep disturbances and mild cognitive impairments (MCI), both of which can be associated with the early stages of dementia. Participants who reported taking at least 5,000 IU of vitamin D each day performed better on measures of cognitive function than those who did not take vitamin D.

Higher Vitamin D Intake Linked to Better Cognitive Scores

The findings, recently published in Sleep Medicine, showed that people taking 5,000 IU or more of vitamin D daily scored more than 13% higher on the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) compared with participants who took none, even after researchers adjusted for other factors.

MoCA is a widely used screening test designed to assess memory, thinking skills, and the risk of developing dementia. In contrast to the results seen with the higher intake group, lower daily doses of vitamin D were not associated with improved cognitive scores.

The researchers also highlighted the potential importance of when an intervention takes place. MCI is an intermediate stage between normal cognitive aging and dementia.

"In older adults experiencing both sleep disturbance and mild cognitive impairment, this may represent a critical window for intervention, when cognitive changes are emerging, but opportunities to support brain health may remain," says Victoria Pak, senior author of the study.

"Identifying accessible and modifiable factors, such as vitamin D supplement intake, during the earlier stages of cognitive decline may become increasingly important, particularly as rates of Alzheimer's disease continue to rise," adds Pak, associate professor at Emory University's Nell Hodgson Woodruff School of Nursing.

Vitamin D2 and D3 Showed Similar Results

The researchers also examined whether the form of vitamin D made a difference. Cognitive performance was similar among people taking vitamin D2, which is typically obtained from plants or fungi, and vitamin D3, which the body produces after sun exposure and which can also come from animal-based foods.

Vitamin D is an essential nutrient involved in muscle and nerve function, and it also plays a role in sleep quality and sleep-wake cycles. Sleep problems are common among people with Alzheimer's disease. 50% of those with moderate to severe Alzheimer's disease report sleep disturbances, pointing to a two-way relationship between poor sleep and cognitive decline.

Source: ScienceDaily

Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming

 Global warming has sped up since around 2015, according to a new analysis from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). After removing the effects of natural temperature swings, researchers found the first statistically significant evidence that the planet's long-term warming rate is accelerating.

Over the past decade, global temperatures have risen at an estimated pace of about 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset used. By comparison, the average warming rate from 1970 to 2015 was just under 0.2°C per decade. The recent pace is higher than that of any previous decade since instrumental temperature records began in 1880.

Scientists Isolate the Long-Term Warming Signal

"We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015," says Grant Foster, a US statistics expert and co-author of the study, which was published today in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters.

"We filter out known natural influences in the observational data, so that the 'noise' is reduced, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible," Foster added.

In climate data, "noise" refers to short-erm temperature changes that can temporarily hide or exaggerate the underlying trend. El Niño, for example, can push global temperatures higher for a limited period by releasing heat from the tropical Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. Volcanic eruptions can have the opposite effect by sending particles into the atmosphere that reflect sunlight, while changes in the Sun's activity can also produce smaller temperature variations.

To separate these temporary influences from the broader warming trend, the researchers analyzed measurements from five widely used global temperature data sets (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5).

"The adjusted data show an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of over 98 percent, consistent across all data sets examined and independent of the analysis method chosen," explains Stefan Rahmstorf, PIK researcher and lead author of the study.

Warming Acceleration Appears Across Five Datasets

A statistical certainty of more than 98 percent means the researchers found strong evidence that the change in the warming rate is real rather than the result of random variation in the data. The same overall pattern appeared in all five temperature records, even though the datasets are produced by different scientific organizations and use somewhat different methods.

After the researchers adjusted for El Niño and the solar maximum, the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024 was reduced slightly in the analysis. Even so, both years remained the two warmest since instrumental records began.

Across all of the datasets, the acceleration started to become visible in 2013 or 2014. The researchers describe the broader shift as beginning around 2015, when the evidence became clearer.

Two Statistical Methods Point to the Same Shift

To determine whether the warming rate had changed since the 1970s, the team used two statistical approaches. The first was a quadratic trend analysis, which tests whether the temperature curve is bending upward over time rather than rising at a constant rate.

The second was a piecewise linear model. This method divides the temperature record into separate periods and objectively identifies when the rate of warming appears to change. Both approaches supported the conclusion that global warming has accelerated.

Study Does Not Identify the Cause

The research was designed to detect and measure the statistical acceleration, not to determine exactly why it has occurred.

However, the authors noted that climate models can produce periods in which warming speeds up. In other words, an increasing rate of warming is consistent with the range of behavior represented in current climate modeling.

Climate models are computer simulations that use the laws of physics to estimate how the atmosphere, oceans, ice, and land respond to greenhouse gases and other influences. They do not predict every short-term fluctuation perfectly, but they help scientists evaluate long-term climate patterns and possible future changes.

1.5°C Threshold Could Be Exceeded Before 2030

"If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030," says Stefan Rahmstorf. "How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero."

The 1.5°C limit refers to the goal of restricting long-term global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. A single year above that level does not by itself mean the Paris Agreement threshold has been permanently crossed. Scientists generally focus on sustained warming over a longer period.

Source: ScienceDaily

Ancient Arctic carbon is pouring into the sea, but the seabed captures most of it

 The Arctic's frozen ground contains enormous stores of organic carbon. As permafrost thaws and coastlines erode, some of that carbon is carried into the ocean. There, microorganisms can break it down and release greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change.

Until now, scientists have had limited information about how much of this carbon returns to the atmosphere and how much remains trapped in the ocean. Researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute and MARUM - Centre for Marine Environmental Sciences at the University of Bremen have now examined this process along the permafrost coast of Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island) in Canada.

By studying sediment cores, the team found that large amounts of carbon from land are preserved in the seafloor. They also discovered that marine microorganisms behave like selective eaters, favoring fresh carbon from the ocean over older carbon released from permafrost. The findings were published in Nature Geoscience.

Vast Carbon Stores Are Beginning to Thaw

Permafrost ecosystems on Arctic land contain about 1,300 gigatonnes of organic carbon, much of it from plant remains. Another 400 gigatonnes are stored in ocean sediments and river deltas.

As the planet warms, the Arctic is heating faster than any other region. This rapid temperature rise is causing frozen ground to thaw and coastlines to break apart. Carbon that was previously locked in the soil can then reach the Arctic Ocean through rivers and coastal erosion.

"Consequently, up to 0.02 gigatonnes are entering the sea each year, and according to forecasts, this outflow could rise by 70 to 150 percent by the year 2100," says Dr. Manuel Ruben, lead author of the study from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI). "However, how much of this is released back into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas and how much is stored in the seabed has, until now, been largely unknown."

Resolving that uncertainty is important because scientists need to know where the carbon ultimately ends up to estimate how thawing permafrost could affect the climate.

Sediment Cores Reveal Where the Carbon Goes

To investigate, the researchers collected sediment cores from several locations off the coast of Herschel Island. These cores contain layers of material deposited over roughly 50 years.

The results showed that only a relatively small share of the carbon swept into the ocean becomes part of the active carbon cycle.

"Although the sea here carries away huge quantities of organic carbon from the coast, surprisingly little of it ends up in the ocean's active carbon cycle," says Manuel Ruben. "Microorganisms convert around ten percent of the organic carbon from the sediments into gases, which rise into the water and can then enter our atmosphere."

Most of the remaining carbon stays buried in the seabed.

Chemical Clues Track Microbial Activity

The scientists analyzed the composition of the sediment cores and measured how quickly material from the permafrost accumulated on the ocean floor.

They also studied dissolved inorganic carbon found in tiny spaces between sediment particles, known as pore water. These measurements reveal how much CO2 microorganisms have released after consuming organic material.

The isotopic makeup of the pore water helped the team determine where that material came from.

"Carbon isotopes represent our atomic indicators that can identify the food source of the microorganisms," says Prof. Gesine Mollenhauer, a geochemist at the AWI and co-spokesperson for the 'The Ocean Floor - Earth's Unexplored Interface' cluster of Excellence. "The 13C isotope, for example, tells us whether they have consumed carbon from land or from the sea. By way of the 14C isotope, we were able to determine whether the single-celled organisms preferred old organic carbon from permafrost or fresh organic carbon from algae remains."

"Gourmet" Bacteria Prefer Fresh Carbon

The results suggest that the organisms living in the sediment are not equally interested in every type of carbon.

"The sediment is home to 'gourmet' bacteria that apparently prefer fresh carbon stemming from, for example, more recent algal remains over the 'old' carbon from permafrost deposits," explains Gesine Mollenhauer.

Because the microbes favor fresh marine material, older carbon from thawing permafrost may contribute less to atmospheric greenhouse gas levels than scientists once feared.

However, the researchers caution that the full picture is not yet clear.

"However, we do need further research here. This is because some of the organic carbon from the permafrost may already have been broken down before it reaches the seabed."

Coastal Carbon Could Reshape Arctic Ecosystems

The movement of carbon from land into the ocean may affect more than greenhouse gas emissions. It can also change the chemistry and biology of coastal waters that support food resources for local communities.

Sediment released by coastal erosion can reduce the amount of sunlight entering the water. Freshly eroded fragments make the coastal ocean cloudy, while dissolved organic carbon can darken the water.

That loss of light can affect single-celled organisms such as algae, which need sunlight to produce biomass and oxygen. This primary production supports a wider food web that includes fish, crustaceans and seals.

The researchers plan to explore these connections further during the international 'Arctic Pulse' campaign scheduled for 2027. Scientists will carry out coordinated observations from the Polarstern research icebreaker, aboard AWI research aircraft and at sites on land. Their goal is to understand how rapid environmental change is transforming Arctic ecosystems.

Improving Arctic Climate Models

"Our study shows, more precisely than ever before, how much carbon is safely stored in the seabed - and just how much of the decomposed material actually originates from the old permafrost," says Manuel Ruben. "This provides an important foundation for climate models that can predict the consequences of permafrost thawing for the global climate."

Source: ScienceDaily

The AMOC stayed strong even as a major ocean “lifeline” nearly shut down

 Scientists have long believed that warm, salty water flowing from the Indian Ocean around the southern tip of Africa and into the Atlantic helps support one of the planet's most important ocean circulation systems. This flow, known as Agulhas Leakage, has been considered a major contributor to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which forms part of the global ocean conveyor system.

New findings from an international research team based in the Netherlands, USA, China and UK suggest that this relationship is more complicated than previously assumed. Their results indicate that changes in Agulhas Leakage do not always produce the expected response in deep water formation. The study offers a clearer picture of how the AMOC works and how its behavior may vary under different climate conditions.

Testing a Textbook Explanation of the AMOC

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports warm surface water toward the north while carrying colder, denser water back toward the south at greater depths. Through this exchange, it influences temperatures across the North Atlantic and much of Europe, making it a central part of the global climate system.

For decades, researchers have proposed that Agulhas Leakage helps maintain or strengthen the AMOC. This leakage carries warm, salty Indian Ocean water around South Africa and into the Atlantic. Its strength is influenced by shifts in the position of the subtropical front. According to the traditional explanation, the added salt encourages the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, which helps sustain Atlantic overturning.

"This was basically the first textbook concept, that I learnt when I was a bachelor student. It was surprising to find geological evidence showing that it isn't universally true. The AMOC can remain strong even when Agulhas Leakage weakens," explains lead author Dr. Suning Hou from Utrecht University.

Hou and his colleagues examined conditions during the late Pliocene (3.6-2.6 million years ago). This period included a short but significant glacial event followed by the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, when global conditions were warmer than they are today. The transition provided researchers with a useful opportunity to study how ocean circulation near South Africa and within the Atlantic responded as the climate shifted from cooler to warmer conditions.

Ancient Sediments Reveal Shifting Ocean Boundaries

The team studied a marine sediment core collected from International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1475 on the Agulhas Plateau, about 500 kilometers south of South Africa.

Within the core, researchers examined fossilized microplankton known as dinocysts, along with organic lipid biomarkers. These materials allowed them to estimate past ocean temperatures and track movements of the Southern Ocean subtropical front toward the north or south.

Hou: "If you find a change in the dinocyst assemblage in the sediment, this means that the front shifted. For instance, if you find more of the warmer species and less of the colder ones, the front has moved south. A more southerly front generally opens a wider pathway for Indian Ocean water to leak into the Atlantic, and vice versa."

Using these indicators, the researchers produced a detailed reconstruction of possible changes in Agulhas Leakage throughout the late Pliocene.

To determine how the Atlantic responded, they also developed temperature records from Ocean Drilling Program Site 625 in the northern Gulf of Mexico. They combined those findings with previously published evidence from the equatorial Atlantic, the North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.

The team then compared the geological records with numerical climate model simulations covering the late Pliocene glacial event and the warmer period that followed. Together, the evidence from several ocean basins connected movements of the Southern Ocean front with changes in Atlantic temperature layers and overturning circulation.

Agulhas Leakage Declined While Overturning Intensified

The reconstruction from waters south of Africa showed that the subtropical front began moving northward around 3.4 million years ago and continued doing so during the glacial event.

At the same time, temperatures in the Agulhas region fell by about 3 degrees Celsius. Site U1475 also developed subpolar conditions. These changes indicate that Agulhas Leakage weakened dramatically and may have come close to stopping.

According to the conventional theory, a reduction in the transport of salty water should have weakened the AMOC. Instead, both the geological evidence and the computer simulations revealed the opposite pattern in important parts of the circulation system.

During the glacial interval, the North Atlantic Current did not extend as far into the high northern latitudes. Even so, the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water became stronger, as did overturning at lower latitudes. This intensified circulation caused the thermocline, the boundary between warmer surface water and colder deep water, to become shallower across the Atlantic.

Source: ScienceDaily

Marine heatwaves are harming human health in surprising ways

 Marine heatwaves are increasingly being recognized as more than an environmental problem. New research warns that prolonged periods of unusually warm ocean temperatures can also threaten human physical and mental health.

Researchers from Adelaide University and the University of Hong Kong say marine heatwaves should be treated as an important public health concern. They argue that the effects on people have received relatively little attention, even as evidence continues to show how widely these events can affect communities.

The consequences can be severe. The rapid strengthening of Hurricane Otis in 2023 and the destruction it caused in Mexico (an estimated damage bill of more than US$15 billion) have been linked to marine heatwaves. Typhoon Doksuri in 2023, which had impacts across Asia (which affected more than two million people across Asia), has also been associated with unusually warm ocean conditions.

In South Australia, a devastating algal bloom linked to marine heat conditions has also been associated with numerous health problems in coastal communities.

How Marine Heatwaves Can Affect Human Health

A new paper published in Nature Sustainability describes how sustained periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures can set off a chain of consequences for people. These include more severe weather, reduced seafood availability, threats to food safety, disrupted livelihoods and greater mental health pressures in coastal areas.

Lead author Dr. Laura Falkenberg, from Adelaide University's School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, said researchers have long recognized the ecological damage caused by marine heatwaves, but their effects on humans have attracted much less attention.

"Marine heatwaves are no longer just recognized as an environmental issue; they are increasingly also perceived as a human health issue," Dr. Falkenberg said.

"Our paper highlights that these events can influence people's health in many different ways, both directly and indirectly. They can intensify storms and atmospheric heatwaves, affect the availability and safety of seafood, disrupt livelihoods and contribute to anxiety, grief and other mental health impacts in communities that depend on healthy oceans."

Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, lasting longer and reaching greater intensity as the climate warms. Scientists have already connected them with widespread coral bleaching, large-scale deaths of marine organisms, harmful algal blooms and major disruptions to fisheries and aquaculture.

According to the researchers, those environmental disruptions can have serious consequences for people as well.

Stronger Storms, Unsafe Seafood and Food Security Risks

Extremely warm ocean water can help strengthen weather systems, raising the danger of injuries, deaths and displacement caused by storms and flooding.

Marine heatwaves can also make harmful algal blooms more likely. These blooms can contaminate seafood and create significant health hazards for people who consume or come into contact with affected marine environments.

The effects can continue long after an individual heatwave ends. Falling fish populations and reduced seafood production could undermine food security for billions of people around the world who depend on the ocean as an important source of nutrition.

The Mental Health Toll of a Changing Ocean

The researchers also draw attention to the psychological effects of marine ecosystem loss. People whose livelihoods, traditions and cultural identities are closely tied to the ocean can experience significant emotional stress as familiar environments deteriorate.

In 2025, the toxic algal bloom in South Australia was associated with high levels of 'eco-anxiety,' as well as grief, frustration and depression. The bloom was also linked to physical health problems including respiratory irritation and asthma.

"Many people rely on healthy oceans not only for food and income, but also for recreation, cultural identity and their overall sense of well-being," Dr. Falkenberg said.

"When marine ecosystems suffer, the impacts ripple through communities. We are seeing increasing evidence that these changes can contribute to eco-anxiety, grief and other mental health challenges, particularly for people who feel deeply connected to the marine environment."

Researchers Call for Public Health Planning

The authors say governments and public health agencies should prepare for marine heatwaves in ways similar to how they prepare for heatwaves on land.

That could include using marine heatwave forecasts in public health planning, accounting for human health consequences when making coastal and marine management decisions, and strengthening cooperation among ocean scientists, health agencies and resource managers.

Dr. Falkenberg said preparing before emergencies happen could make communities more resilient as marine heatwaves become increasingly severe.

"Recognizing these health impacts is the first step towards better protecting communities," she said.

"If we only respond after disasters occur, we will continue to experience greater impacts than if we had acted proactively. By understanding the links between ocean health and human health, we can develop better policies that protect both people and the marine ecosystems they depend on."

Source: ScienceDaily